Does confirmation bias exist in judged events at the Olympic Games?

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-11-02 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2019-0043

Christiana E. Hilmer, Michael J. Hilmer

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Examining data for the 10 Olympic Games contested this century, we ask whether confirmation bias exists in judged events. We theorize that if such bias is present, then competitors in judged events should perform closer to predicted than competitors in non-judged events. Among a sample of over 5100 predicted medalists from the 10 Games, we find that, all else equal, the differences between ex-ante conventional wisdom and ex-post observed outcome are larger for competitors in timed events than for competitors in judged events. These results suggest that confirmation bias does potentially exist for judged events at the Olympic Games.

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确认偏见是否存在于奥运会的裁判项目中?

摘要通过对本世纪10届奥运会的数据分析，我们想知道在被评判的项目中是否存在确认偏见。我们的理论是，如果存在这样的偏见，那么在评判项目中的选手应该比在非评判项目中的选手表现得更接近于预测。在来自10届奥运会的5100多名预测奖牌获得者的样本中，我们发现，在其他条件相同的情况下，计时项目选手的事前传统智慧和事后观察结果之间的差异大于裁判项目选手的差异。这些结果表明，确认偏误确实可能存在于奥运会的裁判项目中。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.