Does Gold Still Shelter Inflation, and, if so, When? Evidence From Four Countries

Abstract

This study investigates gold as a hedge or a safe haven against inflation in four countries. We propose two standard and quantile techniques in the volatility models, with a time-varying conditional variance of regression residuals based on TGARCH specifications. Gold exhibits considerable evidence of a strong hedge in the US and China. Nevertheless, gold provides shelter at different times and not consistently across countries. With regards to be a safe haven, gold retains its status as a key investment in China. On the other hand, gold only plays a minor role in the UK and India. These findings indicate that gold can secure Chinese investment during the high inflationary periods, while gold is a profitable asset to hold over a long period of time in the US. In contrast, UK and Indian investors should hold a well-diversified portfolio for sustainable return and protection from purchasing power loss.