Scenarios of State Development in the XXI Century

Abstract

Scientific forecasting and long-term planning of social development cannot ignore such a key structural component of modern society as the state. This article describes the prospects for the development of the state in the XXI century, the main factors of state transformation, and the most common interpretations of their consequences. The list of factors includes globalization, scientific and technological progress, competing multinational companies, and various supranational structures. The research revealed four scenarios. (1) The state gives place to new management systems. (2) The main political centers remain either as executive units of supranational structures, or as relatively independent macro-formations. (3) National states degenerate into new political forms under the influence of modern social factors. (4) New autarkies or neo-autarkies appear on the territories of contemporary states. Most forecasters foretell those states are bound to lose their independence of internal and foreign policy on a planetary scale. Some of them see a process of transition to new non-state models of society management. Others declare that states will grow in strength in the historical perspective, reaching the form of autarky, and on stronger grounds than ever before. The future of the state in this century depends not on political relations, but on the transformation of personality, values, and connections. The future of the state as an independent subject of domestic or foreign policy depends on its ability to respond to the challenges of modern civilization.