Modeling the Country’s Participation in Armed Conflict Resolution: Case of Germany’s Activity in Mali

Q2 Arts and Humanities
P. Trunov
{"title":"Modeling the Country’s Participation in Armed Conflict Resolution: Case of Germany’s Activity in Mali","authors":"P. Trunov","doi":"10.22363/2313-0660-2023-23-1-48-66","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the early 2020s, the challenges of maintaining a Western presence in the zones of armed conflicts in Asia and Africa increased dramatically. This was most evident in Afghanistan, while notable difficulties were also observed in the Sahara-Sahel region. In trying to understand the reasons for this, the author turned to the situation in Mali, trying to correlate the Germany’s actions in Mali with the author’s theoretical-practical scheme of participation of an outside actor in the resolution of an armed conflict. Reaching the position of a full-fledged global actor, Germany is especially interested in creating a strategic presence in the instability zones and is sensitive to its loss. At the first stage of the resolution, the key tasks are the bracketing of radical forces, especially terrorist groups, and the reconciliation of the moderate ones, which are interested in preserving the institution of the state as such. The second stage is the time for full-scale international peacekeeping. The third stage is the nationalization of the resolution, i.e. the transfer of control over the process to the authorities and security forces in the country of conflict’s origin. The study explores the forms, scale, and geographical features of Germany’s use of military tools and diplomatic capabilities in the first two stages of the 2013-2019 resolution. The main “bottlenecks” of the approach are identified, including the persistent delay in applying sufficient efforts and the determinism of this trend. For 2020-2021, two contradictory paths are shown against the background of a new wave of activation of terrorist groups in the south of Mali: an accelerated transition to nationalization with a possible withdrawal of German and French support, and a postponement of the third stage, linked to the preparations for the continued presence of Western countries in Mali.","PeriodicalId":55752,"journal":{"name":"Vestnik RUDN International Relations","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Vestnik RUDN International Relations","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2023-23-1-48-66","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Arts and Humanities","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the early 2020s, the challenges of maintaining a Western presence in the zones of armed conflicts in Asia and Africa increased dramatically. This was most evident in Afghanistan, while notable difficulties were also observed in the Sahara-Sahel region. In trying to understand the reasons for this, the author turned to the situation in Mali, trying to correlate the Germany’s actions in Mali with the author’s theoretical-practical scheme of participation of an outside actor in the resolution of an armed conflict. Reaching the position of a full-fledged global actor, Germany is especially interested in creating a strategic presence in the instability zones and is sensitive to its loss. At the first stage of the resolution, the key tasks are the bracketing of radical forces, especially terrorist groups, and the reconciliation of the moderate ones, which are interested in preserving the institution of the state as such. The second stage is the time for full-scale international peacekeeping. The third stage is the nationalization of the resolution, i.e. the transfer of control over the process to the authorities and security forces in the country of conflict’s origin. The study explores the forms, scale, and geographical features of Germany’s use of military tools and diplomatic capabilities in the first two stages of the 2013-2019 resolution. The main “bottlenecks” of the approach are identified, including the persistent delay in applying sufficient efforts and the determinism of this trend. For 2020-2021, two contradictory paths are shown against the background of a new wave of activation of terrorist groups in the south of Mali: an accelerated transition to nationalization with a possible withdrawal of German and French support, and a postponement of the third stage, linked to the preparations for the continued presence of Western countries in Mali.
国家参与武装冲突解决的模式:以德国在马里的活动为例
本世纪20年代初,在亚洲和非洲的武装冲突地区维持西方存在的挑战急剧增加。这在阿富汗最为明显,而在撒哈拉-萨赫勒地区也观察到明显的困难。在试图理解其原因时,作者转向马里局势,试图将德国在马里的行动与作者的外部行动者参与解决武装冲突的理论-实践计划联系起来。作为一个成熟的全球参与者,德国特别有兴趣在不稳定地区建立战略存在,并对其损失非常敏感。在解决方案的第一阶段,关键任务是将激进势力,特别是恐怖组织纳入其中,并与温和派和解,后者对维护国家机构本身感兴趣。第二阶段是全面的国际维和。第三阶段是决议的国有化,即把对这一进程的控制权移交给冲突起源国的当局和安全部队。该研究探讨了德国在2013-2019年决议的前两个阶段使用军事工具和外交能力的形式、规模和地理特征。确定了该方法的主要“瓶颈”,包括应用足够努力的持续延迟和这种趋势的确定性。2020-2021年,在马里南部新一波恐怖组织活跃的背景下,出现了两条相互矛盾的道路:加速向国有化过渡,可能会撤出德国和法国的支持;推迟第三阶段,与西方国家在马里继续存在的准备有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Vestnik RUDN International Relations
Vestnik RUDN International Relations Arts and Humanities-History
CiteScore
0.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
55
审稿时长
24 weeks
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信