Modeling the Vulnerability of Livelihood Systems to Drought along Livelihood Zones in the Northwestern Escarpment of the Ethiopian Rift Valley

Abstract

Abstract Drought is becoming a common problem for farmers in the Northwestern Escarpment Ethiopian Rift Valley’s three studied livelihood zones (LZs). Droughts wreaked havoc on the community’s livelihood systems regularly. It lefts the community food insure and repeatedly disturbs their ecosystems. As a result, the current study used meteorological, spatial, and socioeconomic data from the area to assess the community’s drought vulnerability. Each variable of drought vulnerability was normalized as proxy indicators to calculate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indexes. From the results, the Raya valley livelihood zone (RVLZ) is relatively more drought vulnerable (0.65) than the Tsirare catchment livelihood zone (TCLZ) (0.63) and Alagie-Ofla livelihood zones (ALOFLZ) (0.60). The RVLZ has a less adaptive capacity than ALOFLZ but more susceptibility and higher exposures to drought risks than the two LZs. Besides, the TCLZ has less adaptive capacity than the two livelihood zones, with more vulnerability and exposure to drought risks than ALOFLZ. The highest levels of exposition and susceptibility synergy with low resilience have aggravated the vulnerability to drought in all study LZs. Livelihood zone-based interventions and climate-smart farming are thus necessary for all LZs to reduce possible drought risks and transfer vulnerable communities into high adaptive capacities.