Modeling of Tea Production in Bangladesh Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model

Abstract

In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to forecast the tea production by using time series data of twenty-four years from 1990-2013. The performance of these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed that out of eleven ARIMA models, ARIMA (1,1,2) is the best fitted model in predicting the production of tea in Bangladesh and the forecasted value of tea production in Bangladesh, for the year 2014, 2015 and 2016 as obtained from ARIMA (1,1,2) was obtained as 65.568 Million Kilogram, 67.867 Million Kilogram and 60.997 Million Kilogram.