A stochastic approach for the wind load effect on steel structures

Abstract

The Brazilian design load standard still provides a wind speed map developed in 1977. Since then, new data have been collected and new charts have been proposed in literature. The literature not only alerts to changes in short-term wind gust patterns, but it also warns that the wind speed values are higher than observed in the past. Many researchers have suggested that these differences are correlated to climate change effects. Besides the geophysical and societal impacts of climate change, there is a general concern between designers on the impacts of higher wind speeds on structural design. This paper aims to analyze the wind speed as a stochastic variable and its influence on the design of steel structures when changes in wind speed occur. A stochastic approach is used to evaluate expected stress values for a steel beam-column example. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed on a forty-story steel frame to compare the impact of different wind speed scenarios and types of analysis. In the analyses, the wind speed is approached by a Gumbel distribution and future wind scenarios are generated for sensitiveness evaluation. The analytical and Monte Carlo analyses indicate that greater attention shall be given to the consequences of using an average wind speed value instead of a probability distribution function.