Currency Velocity and Cash Payments in the US Economy: The Currency Enigma

E. Feige
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

This paper develops a demographic model of the currency population by examining the birth and death rates of specific denominations of currency. This framework permits empirical estimation of the average lifetime of notes in circulation and hence the currency velocity (turnovers per year) of each denomination. The velocity of currency times the stock of currency produces estimates of the annual volume of cash payments. Since the volume of check payments (debits to checkable accounts) is regularly recorded, our estimates of cash payments can be used to estimate the total volume of transactions (MV) from the payment side of Fisher’s equation of exchange. The paper goes on to examine the “currency enigma” from the perspective of both “missing currency” and “missing payments”. The estimated volume of cash payments is so high when compared to personal consumption expenditures, that one is led to the conclusion that a large fraction of the US currency supply is held abroad, and that there is a sizable underground (unreported and perhaps unrecorded) economy in the United States.
美国经济中的货币流通速度和现金支付:货币之谜
本文通过考察特定面额货币的出生率和死亡率,建立了货币人口的人口统计学模型。这一框架允许对流通中的纸币的平均寿命进行实证估计,从而对每种面额的货币流通速度(每年的周转量)进行实证估计。货币流通速度乘以货币存量可以估算出每年的现金支付量。由于支票支付的数量(对支票账户的借记)是定期记录的,我们对现金支付的估计可以用来从费雪交换方程的支付端估计总交易量(MV)。接着,本文从“货币缺失”和“支付缺失”两个角度对“货币之谜”进行了考察。与个人消费支出相比,估计的现金支付量是如此之高,以至于人们得出结论,美国货币供应的很大一部分是在国外持有的,而且在美国有一个相当大的地下经济(未报告,也可能未记录)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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