Assessing the Capacity to Work Among Older Workers: A Survival Analysis of Retirement Behavior

IF 2.7 2区 经济学 Q2 INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR
M. Boissonneault, J. de Beer
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Whether increases to statutory retirement ages will have the anticipated effect in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) depends on whether workers have the health capacity to postpone retirement. Methods that were proposed to measure the capacity to work at older age are ill-designed to assess inter-cohort trends, which is important for determining whether the amount of years spent retired and in good health is keeping up with increases in the statutory retirement age. We propose to measure the capacity to work as the amount of time that people would spend working if they kept working until poor health forces them to retire. We find that American workers born in 1936–1947 spent 9.4 years working between ages 55 and 69 but had the capacity to work an additional 3.3 years. We further find significant inter-cohort increases in the years spent working but insignificant ones in the years spent able to work, which might point toward a decrease in the years spent retired and in good health. Increases in the educational attainment of younger cohorts have had a positive effect on the capacity to work, but the expansion of obesity a negative one. Finally, we find similar trends among men and women as well as among Whites and non-Whites, although the capacity to work is much lower among non-Whites. Our results show the importance of considering inter-cohort changes in the capacity to work when designing policies that aim at inducing higher retirement ages.
评估老年工人的工作能力:退休行为的生存分析
在经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)国家,提高法定退休年龄是否会产生预期效果取决于工人是否有健康能力推迟退休。所提议的衡量老年工作能力的方法设计不当,无法评估各年龄组间的趋势,而这对于确定退休和身体健康的年数是否跟上法定退休年龄的增长是很重要的。我们建议将工作能力衡量为如果人们一直工作到健康状况不佳迫使他们退休,他们将花费在工作上的时间。我们发现,1936-1947年出生的美国人在55岁到69岁之间工作了9.4年,但他们有能力再工作3.3年。我们进一步发现,工作年数显著增加,但能够工作的年数不显著,这可能表明退休和身体健康的年数减少。年轻群体受教育程度的提高对工作能力有积极影响,但肥胖的扩大对工作能力有消极影响。最后,我们在男性和女性以及白人和非白人中发现了类似的趋势,尽管非白人的工作能力要低得多。我们的研究结果表明,在设计旨在提高退休年龄的政策时,考虑工作能力的跨群体变化是很重要的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
21.60%
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