Evaluating Surface Material Loss for Gravel Road

Mengistu Mena Kuleno
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Abstract

Gravel roads require a continuous maintenance and regraveling cycle to maintain the required surface quality and the desired level of service. Surface material loss is a way of deterioration of unpaved road by which the reduction of thickness of gravel wearing course by various factors through time. To keep it in mind the responsible body or roads authority should predict the gravel loss in order to account for maintenance or rehabilitation requirement after a given period. This should be based up on regraveling frequency from predicted gravel loss during construction or after the first maintenance. Here main factors included for study are ADT, mean monthly precipitation of locations, plasticity index of surfacing material and absolute value of gradient of the road as independent variables and gravel loss as dependent variable. The road segments selected are Sodo-Gesuba road(29km), Humbo-Menuka(13km) and Sodo zuriya-Gulgula(11km) road segments. The monthly rainfall data from SNNPR meteorological agency was used as secondary data and all other data was collected from field survey. The data collected for modeling are based up on the basic scientific methods and collected data was analyzed by statistical software IBM SPSS statistics 20 and Microsoft Excel 2019 in order to develop a model. The developed model indicates that gradient of the road is critical factor hence its unit change accelerates loss of gravel by 4.7316, a unit change in ADT lead to 0.1225 change in gravel loss, a unit change in mean monthly precipitation of locations lead to 0.1460 change in gravel loss and a unit change in plasticity index of surfacing material lead to -1.3473 change in gravel loss. From regression output R2 also called coefficient of determination which is the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that can be explained by the independent variables, and is equal to 0.985 for model which means gravel loss contributing factors here in this study explain 98.5% of variability of gravel loss and that statistical package strongly reinforced the correlation. Keywords: Gravel loss, Regraveling, gravel resurfacing, absolute gradient, multiple linear regression and modeling DOI : 10.7176/CMR/11-6-02 Publication date : August 31st 2019
碎石路面材料损失评价
砾石路需要持续的维护和重新铺砾石,以保持所需的表面质量和所需的服务水平。路面物质损耗是指随着时间的推移,各种因素使砂石磨损过程的厚度减少,从而导致未铺路面劣化的一种方式。为了记住这一点,负责机构或道路管理部门应该预测砾石损失,以便在特定时期后考虑维护或修复需求。这应该基于施工期间或第一次维护后预测的砾石损失的重碎石频率。本文研究的主要因素为ADT、地点月平均降水量、路面材料塑性指数和坡度绝对值作为自变量,碎石损失作为因变量。选定的路段是Sodo- gesuba公路(29公里)、Humbo-Menuka公路(13公里)和Sodo zuriya-Gulgula公路(11公里)。次要资料为中央气象台逐月降水资料,其他资料均为野外调查资料。建模所收集的数据基于基本的科学方法,并使用统计软件IBM SPSS statistics 20和Microsoft Excel 2019对收集到的数据进行分析,以建立模型。所建立的模型表明,道路坡度是关键因素,坡度的单位变化使碎石损失加速4.7316,ADT的单位变化使碎石损失加速0.1225,地点月平均降水量的单位变化使碎石损失加速0.1460,铺装材料塑性指数的单位变化使碎石损失加速-1.3473。从回归输出R2也称为决定系数,即因变量中方差可以被自变量解释的比例,对于模型等于0.985,这意味着本研究中砂石损失的贡献因素解释了98.5%的砂石损失变异性,统计包强烈强化了相关性。关键词:碎石损失,碎石重铺,碎石重铺,绝对梯度,多元线性回归与建模
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