A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI:10.1515/ger-2021-0025

C. Glocker, Werner Hölzl

引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.

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主观业务不确定性的直接度量

摘要:我们提出了一种基于商业调查的不确定性度量，其中不确定性直接由关于预期的主观不确定性的定性问题捕获。不确定性感知在公司层面显示持久性，变化与过去的业务评估和期望有关。虽然我们的不确定性测量与常用的替代方法相关，但它在预测方面更优越，并表明不确定性冲击对总波动的作用更大。如果考虑规模较小的企业或增长率较低的企业，其信息含量最高。我们的研究结果证实了从商业调查问题中构建不确定性度量的可行性，这些不确定性度量可以直接引出被调查者的不确定性信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.