The GCC and Changing Global Energy Environment

Abstract

Abstract Global energy trade in hydrocarbons is being significantly re-oriented from the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific region, with energy markets shifting their focus along the same patterns as the global economy –– towards the Asia-Pacific. The net result has been the centre of gravity of energy moving towards Asia and its large and emerging economies. The world is at the same time becoming a system of “world regions” and more urbanized, with the share of population of LDCs living in urban areas rising from 46% in 2014 to 57.9% in 2035. An emerging world region is arguably continental Asia in which East, Central, South and West Asia play a shaping part and developing its “Asianization”. It is argued here that economic orientation and urbanization trends will significantly impact global, and particularly Asian, energy markets thus determining the course of action of energy exporters of the GCC countries, and those of Central and West Asia. In Asia’s uneven energy markets, while China will lead energy demand growth in Asia in the 2020s, it will be India which likely will take up China’s mantle after 2025, thus maintaining and deepening the Persian Gulf’s “Asianization” and Asian energy interactions as part of a deeper integration of Asian economies.