A System Dynamics Approach to Analyze the Effect of a Fostering Policy on the Coastal Shipping Industry

Journal of Korean navigation and port research Pub Date : 2016-10-31 DOI:10.5394/KINPR.2016.40.5.345

Sung-Jin Park, Hoo-Seok Pai, Yong-John Shin

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Abstract

: This study presents a system dynamics methodology to evaluate quantitatively the effect ofthe Korean government’s developmentpolicy, suchastaxreductions, onthe industrialeconomy.Systemdynamicsisoftenperceivedasanoptimizedmeansto identifythedynamicinter-relationshipsamongvariousfactorsofdevelopmentpolicies,andinparticulartheindustrialcharacteristicsand uncertaintiesofthecoastalshippingindustry.Theresultsofsimulationsusedinthisstudyshowsthattheimpactofdevelopmentpolicies suchastaxreductionswould increase shipping demand for about4years, andthattaxincentivescould raise the demandvolume for cabotagecargofrom5.26to11.11%,throughtheavailablefreight-downby90∼95%points.Thesystemdynamicsapproachusedinthis paperrepresentsaninitialattempttousethismethodologyinstudiesofthecoastalshippingindustry.Onthebasisof oursimulations, theindustrialeffectsofotherdevelopmentpolicies,suchasshipfinancingsupport,investmentofsocialoverhead,orcrewsupply,could alsobeanalyzedeffectively.Additionally,itshouldbepossibletoextendtheseresultsbydevelopingacomprehensivemodelencompassing thesevariousanalyses.

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用系统动力学方法分析沿海航运业扶持政策的效果

本研究提出一种系统动力学方法来定量评估韩国政府的发展政策(如减税)对工业经济的影响。系统动力学通常被认为是识别发展政策的各种因素之间动态相互关系的优化手段，特别是沿海航运业的产业特征和不确定性。本研究的模拟结果表明，税收减免等发展政策的影响将使航运需求增加约4年，税收激励可以通过可用运费下降90 ~ 95%，将港口货物的需求量从5.26%提高到11.11%。Thesystemdynamicsapproachusedinthis paperrepresentsaninitialattempttousethismethodologyinstudiesofthecoastalshippingindustry。在我们模拟的基础上，还可以有效地分析工业对发展政策的影响，如融资支持、社会间接投资或劳动力供应。此外,itshouldbepossibletoextendtheseresultsbydevelopingacomprehensivemodelencompassing thesevariousanalyses。

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Journal of Korean navigation and port research

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