CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN EXPORT, IMPORT, REMITTANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

Given the importance of the economic indicators on the economic growth in Bangladesh, this paper examines the shortrun and long run causality between remittance, imports, exports and GDP growth of Bangladesh using the data over the liberalized period 1976-2016. Applying the Johansen cointegration and elasticity concept, this study finds that variables are cointegrated as well a long run nexus between exports, imports, remittances and GDP growth in Bangladesh. Besides, the Granger Causality test in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) framework, this study finds unidirectional causality from import to growth in Bangladesh. The hardly surprising result, remittance does not show any feedback effect/causality in both the short run and long run. The possible interpretation may be that remittances mainly benefit the individual receivers. The finding also explores that exports, imports and remittances endorse each other in the short run