‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’: identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2022-0051

R. Baker, Ian G. McHale

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract The existence (or not) of the hot hand in sport continues to attract the attention of economists and psychologists. The paper presents analysis to test the belief prevalent in golfing circles that golfers go in and out of form quickly, while ‘class’ remains relatively constant. By going in and out of form, the golfer is effectively experiencing a longer-run hot hand: one can speculate that periods of confidence breed good performance. To test for the existence of ‘form’, we present a new application of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model and use it to identify both a golfer’s class and form when modelling golf scores. The findings suggest that short-term form does exist in golf and that this hot hand lasts for about four weeks.

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“状态是暂时的，水平是永久的”:识别高尔夫球的长期热手

体育运动中热手的存在与否一直吸引着经济学家和心理学家的关注。这篇论文提出了一种分析来检验高尔夫圈中普遍存在的一种观点，即高尔夫球手的状态变化很快，而“等级”则相对稳定。通过状态的好坏，高尔夫球手实际上是在经历一段较长时间的热手期:人们可以推测，自信的时期孕育了良好的表现。为了检验“形式”的存在，我们提出了一种新的应用Ornstein-Uhlenbeck模型，并使用它在建模高尔夫分数时识别高尔夫球手的类别和形式。研究结果表明，短期的热手状态确实存在于高尔夫运动中，而且这种热手状态会持续四周左右。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

2.00

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.