Comparison of Different Important Predictors and Models for Estimating Large-Scale Biomass of Rubber Plantations in Hainan Island, China

Abstract

Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Muell.) plantations are among the most critical agricultural ecosystems in tropical regions, playing a vital role in regional carbon balance. Accurate large-scale biomass estimation for these plantations remains a challenging task due to the severe signal saturation problem. Recent advances in remote sensing big data, cloud platforms, and machine learning have facilitated the precise acquisition of key physiological variables, such as stand age (A) and canopy height (H), which are critical parameters for biomass estimation but have been underutilized in prior studies. Using Hainan Island—the second-largest rubber planting base in China—as a case study, we integrated extensive ground surveys, maps of stand age and canopy height, remote sensing indicators (RSIs), and geographical and climate indicators (ECIs) to ascertain the optimal method for estimating rubber plantation biomass. We compared different inputs and estimation approaches (direct and indirect) using the random forest algorithm and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of rubber plantation biomass on Hainan Island. The results indicated that the traditional model (RSIs + ECIs) had low accuracy and significant estimation bias (R2 = 0.24, RMSE = 38.36 mg/ha). The addition of either stand age or canopy height considerably enhance model accuracy (R2 = 0.77, RMSE ≈ 21.12 mg/ha). Moreover, incorporating the DBH obtained through indirect inversion yielded even greater predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.97, RMSE = 7.73 mg/ha), outperforming estimates derived from an allometric equation model input with the DBH (R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 25.43 mg/ha). However, augmenting the model with stand age, canopy height, or their combination based on RSIs, ECIs, and DBH only marginally improved the accuracy. Consequently, it is not recommended in scenarios with limited data and computing resources. Employing the optimal model, we generated biomass maps of rubber plantations on Hainan Island for 2016 and 2020, revealing that the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of the biomass is closely associated with the establishment year of the rubber plantations. While average biomass in a few areas has undergone slight decreases, total biomass has exhibited significant growth, reaching 5.46 × 107 mg by the end of 2020, underscoring its considerable value as a carbon sink.