Weather Prediction for Singapore—Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

Abstract

Singapore is a tiny city-state located in maritime Southeast Asia. Weather systems such as localized thunderstorms, squalls, and monsoon surges bring extreme rainfall to Singapore, influencing the day-to-day conduct of stakeholders in many sectors. Numerical weather prediction models can provide forecast guidance, but existing global models struggle to capture the development and evolution of the small-scale and transient weather systems impacting the region. To address this, Singapore has collaborated with international partners and developed regional numerical weather prediction systems. Steady progress has been made, bringing added value to stakeholders. In recent years, complex earth system and ultra high-resolution urban models have also been developed to meet increasingly diverse stakeholder needs. However, further advancement of weather prediction for Singapore is often hindered by existing challenges, such as the lack of data, limited understanding of underlying processes, and geographical complexities. These may be viewed as opportunities, but are not trivial to address. There are also other opportunities that have remained relatively unexplored over Singapore and the region, such as the integration of earth system models, uncertainty estimation and machine learning methods. These are perhaps key research directions that Singapore should embark on to continue ensuring value for stakeholders.