Securitization of Assets with Payment Delay Risk: A Financial Innovation in the Real Estate Market

Abstract

We study a new type of securitization, mortgage-receivable-backed securities (MRBSs) issued by real estate developers. Unlike traditional mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), the major risk of underlying assets of MRBSs is payment delay instead of default and prepayment. Using unique loan-level data, we estimate proportional hazard models and detect factors that affect the risk of underlying assets of MRBSs, including bank characteristics, property-loan-household characteristics, local market conditions, and macroeconomic conditions. Especially, we find that the effects of house prices and LTVs on MRBS risk are the opposite of those on traditional MBS risk. Based on the estimates, we simulate cash flows of an underlying-asset pool and analyze the shortfall risk of the corresponding security tranches. We find that the securitization process imposes a natural adverse selection on the underlying assets. Our analyses provide a benchmark for conducting appropriate security designs based on the composition of the underlying asset pool, increase the transparency for investors on the risk pattern of MRBSs, and provide implications for pricing and regulation.