Fuzzy Reliability Based Bow Tie Analysis of Coal Mine Water Inrush Risks

Cong Zhang, Hua-Yang Wang, Yixin Wei
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Water inrush is a serious geological accident in underground coal mines. This paper focuses on the method of the bow tie analysis based on fuzzy reliability to assess the risk of water inrush in coal mines. First, post failure probability and repair probability of initiating events are divided into 5 levels. Then triangular fuzzy numbers are adopted to quantify experts’ language and to acquire the reliability rate which close to the actual values by defuzzification and calculation.  According to dynamic bow-tie analysis model, using the method of moments to fit the reliability time of events by Weibull distribution and offering the random sampling rule of failure and repair time for illustrating the feasibility of fuzzy reliability evaluation.  To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed assessment approach, bow tie analysis model of water inrush in coal mines is taken as an example.
基于模糊可靠性的煤矿突水风险蝴蝶结分析
突水是煤矿井下发生的严重地质事故。本文研究了基于模糊可靠度的煤矿突水风险评价的蝴蝶结分析方法。首先,将启动事件的故障后概率和修复概率分为5个等级。然后采用三角模糊数对专家语言进行量化,通过去模糊化和计算得到接近实际值的可靠性。根据动态领结分析模型,采用矩量法对事件的可靠性时间进行威布尔分布拟合,并给出故障和修复时间的随机抽样规则,说明模糊可靠性评价的可行性。为验证所提评价方法的有效性,以煤矿突水弓形结分析模型为例。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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