Aventuras de una noche y compromisos de largo plazo. Aprobación presidencial de Sebastián Piñera en Chile, 2009-2014

Abstract

In 2010, Sebastian Pinera (2010-2014) became the first rightwing President of Chile after the dictatorship. His approval fluctuated significantly, experiencing an overall downward decline. Under favorable economic conditions, declining presidential approval must be explained by things other than economic vote. Using logistic regression models and predicted probabilities based on presidential approval polls, we test four hypotheses on the determinants of approval for Pinera: a punishment vote against the Concertacion, support tied to economic performance, issue-based support, and the cost of ruling. There is evidence in support of each of the four hypotheses. Although voting for Pinera might have been a one-night stand, economic vote determinants and, to a lesser extent, issue salience and the cost of ruling explain presidential approval under Pinera.