Forest plantations with Toona ciliata: impacts of managerial flexibility on economic viability

IF 0.7 4区农林科学 Q3 FORESTRY

Bois et Forets Des Tropiques Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.19182/bft2022.353.a36818

R. Munis, D. Camargo, D. Simões

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Forest plantations with Toona ciliata are presented as economically viable thanks to the suitability of their wood for high-quality niche products. However, this study verifies whether investment projects in T. ciliata plantations are economically viable with the incorporation of managerial flexibility. We apply technical-economic coefficients from T. ciliata forest plantations over a 15-year planning horizon, considering the investment project as an underlying asset and the price of wood as the only source of uncertainty. Using the Monte Carlo method, we model uncertainty to obtain project volatility, so that, using the Real Option Approach, managerial flexibility for deferral, expansion and abandonment is added to the underlying assets. Based on the traditional economic valuation methodology, we obtained a static net present value of USD 5,075, which reflects the economic viability of the investment project in T. ciliata forest plantations. Due to the uncertainty arising from timber prices, project volatility was 131.7%. Afterwards, it was found that incorporating the deferral and abandonment options added a premium of USD 2,147 to the value of the project, redirecting it towards an expanded net present value of USD 7,223. Incorporation of the real deferral and abandonment options provides flexibility and support for the decision-making process in the management of T. ciliata forest plantations, resulting in a 42.3% increase in the value of the investment project.

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香椿纤毛人工林:管理灵活性对经济可行性的影响

由于其木材适合用于高质量的利基产品，因此具有香椿纤毛的森林人工林在经济上是可行的。然而，本研究验证了在纳入管理灵活性的情况下，纤毛人工林投资项目是否具有经济可行性。考虑到投资项目是一项潜在资产，木材价格是唯一的不确定性来源，我们应用了15年规划期内纤毛杉林人工林的技术经济系数。利用蒙特卡罗方法对不确定性进行建模，得到项目波动率，从而利用实物期权方法，为标的资产增加了延期、扩张和放弃的管理灵活性。基于传统的经济评估方法，我们得到静态净现值为5075美元，这反映了纤毛林人工林投资项目的经济可行性。由于木材价格的不确定性，项目波动率为131.7%。后来发现，纳入延期和放弃选项后，项目价值增加了2147美元的溢价，将其重新导向扩大后的净现值7223美元。结合实际的延期和放弃选项，为毛柳林人工林管理决策过程提供了灵活性和支持，导致投资项目价值增加42.3%。

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来源期刊

Bois et Forets Des Tropiques FORESTRY-

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

16.70%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： In 1947, the former Tropical Forest Technical Centre (CTFT), now part of CIRAD, created the journal Bois et Forêts des Tropiques. Since then, it has disseminated knowledge and research results on forests in intertropical and Mediterranean regions to more than sixty countries. The articles, peer evaluated and reviewed, are short, synthetic and accessible to researchers, engineers, technicians, students and decision-makers. They present original, innovative research results, inventions or discoveries. The journal publishes in an international dimension. The topics covered are of general interest and are aimed at an informed international audience.