Effect of Critical Risk Factors Causing Cost Deviation in Medium Sized Construction Projects

IF 0.8 Q4 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Journal of Construction in Developing Countries Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.21315/JCDC2018.23.2.5

S. M. Renuka, C. Umarani

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引用次数: 9

Abstract

Risk is the outcome of an event which may be predicted on the basis of statistical probability. Construction projects have inherent risks associated with it. The main aim of this paper is to identify the critical risk factors and to propose a model to find the probability of cost deviation in medium sized construction projects. A total of 46 risk factors were shortlisted based on pilot study and experts' opinion. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 223 various construction professionals each representing one project i.e. from 223 different projects. Based on factor analysis, 46 risk factors which influence the cost deviation in construction projects were classified under nine key risk groups viz. project scope and evaluation risk, work environment risk, documentation and legal framework risk, construction and operational risk, resource productivity risk, knowledge sharing risk, site supervision risk, financial viability risk and lean construction risk. Logistic regression analysis was also carried out to develop a model to find the probability of cost deviation in construction projects. It is concluded that the risk groups such as project scope and evaluation risk, site supervision risk, knowledge sharing risk and lean construction risk are having higher influence in the cost deviation in medium sized construction projects. By setting the effective baseline of the project like estimation of original project cost and detailed project report, cost deviations in medium size construction projects can be eliminated. Detailed recommendations are also provided.

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中型建设项目中关键风险因素对成本偏差的影响

风险是事件的结果，可以根据统计概率进行预测。建设项目有其固有的风险。本文的主要目的是识别关键风险因素，并提出一个模型来寻找中型建设项目成本偏差的概率。根据前期研究和专家意见，共筛选出46个风险因素。我们对223名不同的建筑专业人士进行了问卷调查，每名专业人士代表一个项目，即来自223个不同的项目。基于因子分析，将影响建设项目成本偏差的46个风险因素划分为项目范围与评价风险、工作环境风险、文件与法律框架风险、施工与运营风险、资源生产力风险、知识共享风险、现场监管风险、财务可行性风险和精益施工风险9个关键风险组。通过Logistic回归分析，建立了工程造价偏离概率模型。结果表明，项目范围与评价风险、现场监理风险、知识共享风险、精益施工风险等风险组对中型建设项目成本偏差影响较大。通过对原项目成本估算、详细的项目报告等设置有效的项目基线，可以消除中型建设项目的成本偏差。并提出了详细的建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Construction in Developing Countries CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

20 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Construction in Developing Countries seeks to provide a central vehicle for the exchange and dissemination of knowledge on issues relevant to the built environment of developing countries. The journal provides a wide range of original research an application papers on current developments and advances in the built environment as well as the economic, social, cultural and technological contexts of developing countries. It also publishes detailed case studies, as well as short communications and discussions. Topics covered include, but are not restricted to planning, urban economics, rural and regional development, housing, management and resource issues, sustiainability, knowledge and technology transfer, construction procurement, facilities management, information an communication technologies, strategies and policy issues, design issues, conservation and environmental issues.