The Option Value of Innovation

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Forum for Health Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2012-04-18 DOI:10.1515/1558-9544.1306

Julia Thornton Snider, J. Romley, William B. Vogt, T. Philipson

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引用次数: 12

Abstract

Abstract Standard techniques of cost effectiveness analysis measure a technology’s benefits in terms of expected life years (or quality-adjusted life years) gained at today’s life expectancies. However, this approach ignores the gains which derive from the possibility that a health technology allows an individual to survive long enough to benefit from other technological innovations which raise life expectancy (and quality of life) in the future. Borrowing a term from the finance literature, we refer to this source of value as the “option value” of innovation. We explain where this value comes from and how to calculate it in a variety of standard cost effectiveness analysis contexts. We provide a proof-of-concept using the example of the drug tamoxifen, which delayed the onset of breast cancer for some patients until more effective adjuvant treatment was available. We find that incorporating option value can increase the conventionally estimated value of tamoxifen with better adjuvant treatment by nearly a quarter (from $200,000 to $248,000 for those who initiated tamoxifen in 1999). We expect similar results for other drugs in therapeutic areas of rapid technological advancement.

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创新的期权价值

成本效益分析的标准技术根据预期寿命年(或质量调整寿命年)衡量技术在今天预期寿命下的收益。然而，这种做法忽视了下述可能性所带来的收益:一项保健技术使个人能够活得足够长，从而受益于提高未来预期寿命(和生活质量)的其他技术创新。借用金融文献中的一个术语，我们将这种价值来源称为创新的“期权价值”。我们解释这个值从何而来，以及如何在各种标准成本效益分析上下文中计算它。我们以药物他莫昔芬为例进行了概念验证，它延缓了一些患者乳腺癌的发病，直到有了更有效的辅助治疗。我们发现，结合选择价值可以将他莫昔芬与更好的辅助治疗的传统估计价值增加近四分之一(从1999年开始使用他莫昔芬的人的20万美元增加到24.8万美元)。我们期望在技术快速发展的治疗领域的其他药物也能取得类似的结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Forum for Health Economics and Policy Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Forum for Health Economics & Policy (FHEP) showcases articles in key substantive areas that lie at the intersection of health economics and health policy. The journal uses an innovative structure of forums to promote discourse on the most pressing and timely subjects in health economics and health policy, such as biomedical research and the economy, and aging and medical care costs. Forums are chosen by the Editorial Board to reflect topics where additional research is needed by economists and where the field is advancing rapidly. The journal is edited by Katherine Baicker, David Cutler and Alan Garber of Harvard University, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, Dana Goldman of the University of Southern California and RAND Corporation, Neeraj Sood of the University of Southern California, Anup Malani and Tomas Philipson of University of Chicago, Pinar Karaca Mandic of the　University of Minnesota, and John Romley of the University of Southern California. FHEP is sponsored by the Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California. A subscription to the journal also includes the proceedings from the National Bureau of Economic Research''s annual Frontiers in Health Policy Research Conference. Topics: Economics, Political economics, Biomedical research and the economy, Aging and medical care costs, Nursing, Cancer studies, Medical treatment, Others related.