Risk estimation and decision making in management (in selected areas of science)

IF 0.7 Q4 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
T. Galanc, W. Kołwzan, J. Pieronek, Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Risk is a category that is inseparably connected with uncertainty and probability, which means that the nature of risk as a category of science is complex, and the concept of risk is very difficult to define by one conceptual system of modern science. Due to the above, the main research hypothesis of the work is oriented to the assumption that the complexity of the risk category is determined by the diversity (variety) of reality, as a result of which in science there is currently no uniform methodology for risk assessment and estimation. As a result, the main goal of the article is to describe the research area based on selected representative methods of risk estimation and logical decision-making schemes, as well as to systematise the knowledge about the methodology used in them. In the article, the authors illustrate risk estimation with examples developed by themselves and quoted from various fields of science, differing from one another in formal terms in quantitative and qualitative (numerical and content-verbally) dimensions. Strategic risk, risk of fraction estimation, Bayesian risk, Bayesian methods for estimation of population distribution parameters, risk of econometric model assessment, interest rate risk, banking risk, and adverse event as a measure of risk are here addressed. The article also focuses on the problem of risk estimation in terms of the theory of fractals. The work is to have not only cognitive but also practical meaning. The created source of knowledge should prove helpful for decision-makers in the area of management since effective process management requires the expertise of risk estimation in various dimensions and using various mathematical tools.
管理中的风险评估和决策(在选定的科学领域)
风险是一个与不确定性和概率密不可分的范畴,这意味着风险作为一个科学范畴的性质是复杂的,风险的概念很难用现代科学的一个概念体系来定义。因此,本工作的主要研究假设是风险类别的复杂性是由现实的多样性(多样性)决定的,因此在科学上目前还没有统一的风险评估和估计方法。因此,本文的主要目标是根据所选的风险估计和逻辑决策方案的代表性方法来描述研究领域,并将其中使用的方法知识系统化。在文章中,作者用他们自己开发的例子来说明风险评估,这些例子引用自不同的科学领域,在定量和定性(数字和口头内容)方面的正式术语彼此不同。策略风险、分数估计风险、贝叶斯风险、估计人口分布参数的贝叶斯方法、计量经济模型评估风险、利率风险、银行风险和作为风险度量的不良事件。本文还重点讨论了分形理论中的风险估计问题。工作不仅要有认识意义,而且要有实践意义。所创造的知识来源应该证明对管理领域的决策者有帮助,因为有效的过程管理需要在各个方面进行风险估计和使用各种数学工具的专门知识。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Operations Research and Decisions
Operations Research and Decisions OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
25.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
15 weeks
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