The results of Donald Trump’s anti-Cuban policy and the prospects for US–Cuban relations under Joseph Biden

Abstract

After Donald Trump becoming US president, the process of normalizing US-Cuban relations was interrupted for four years. After his inauguration, as he had promised during the election campaign, he canceled almost all of the achievements of his predecessor in the area of improving bilateral ties and subsequently consistently tightened sanctions against Havana. This could have been due to the desire of Trump to provide a reciprocal ‘service’ to the ultra-conservative interest groups in Washington, D.C. whose substantial support was used during the elections. At the same time, the Republican, usually not inclined to caution in decision-making, gradually introduced new restrictions on interaction with the Latin American country and was in no hurry to use all instruments available at once. Probably, in this way Trump tried to keep for himself as long as possible the main ‘bargaining chip’, which the Island of Freedom became in his internal political game quid pro quo the new partners from among the ‘hawks’. Therefore, the White House began to take the most aggressive measures just on the eve of the 2020 elections and immediately after them. The victory of the Democrat Joseph Biden, who served as a vice-president in Barack Obama administration, did not allow the calculations of the ultra-conservatives to come true in full: Cuba withstood the pressure from the United States and there was hope that Washington and Havana would again meet at the negotiating table. But under what conditions the parties can return to the topic of normalizing relations is still unknown. In this sense, a lot will depend on the team of the elected president, senior officials who will be included in his team. In addition, the changes in regional international relations that have taken place in recent years will also play a role. The situation some six years ago, which prompted the White House to move closer to the Island of Freedom, has partially lost its relevance today. In this regard, the position of the Latin American states, the American-Cuban community in the United States, as well as the current balance of power in the Congress deserve special attention. The article uses a problematic approach, the main task of which was to analyze the main results of Trump’s anti-Cuban policy and to identify opportunities for improving US-Cuban relations during the Biden administration.