The results of Donald Trump’s anti-Cuban policy and the prospects for US–Cuban relations under Joseph Biden

M. Kodzoev
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Abstract

After Donald Trump becoming US president, the process of normalizing US-Cuban relations was interrupted for four years. After his inauguration, as he had promised during the election campaign, he canceled almost all of the achievements of his predecessor in the area of improving bilateral ties and subsequently consistently tightened sanctions against Havana. This could have been due to the desire of Trump to provide a reciprocal ‘service’ to the ultra-conservative interest groups in Washington, D.C. whose substantial support was used during the elections. At the same time, the Republican, usually not inclined to caution in decision-making, gradually introduced new restrictions on interaction with the Latin American country and was in no hurry to use all instruments available at once. Probably, in this way Trump tried to keep for himself as long as possible the main ‘bargaining chip’, which the Island of Freedom became in his internal political game quid pro quo the new partners from among the ‘hawks’. Therefore, the White House began to take the most aggressive measures just on the eve of the 2020 elections and immediately after them. The victory of the Democrat Joseph Biden, who served as a vice-president in Barack Obama administration, did not allow the calculations of the ultra-conservatives to come true in full: Cuba withstood the pressure from the United States and there was hope that Washington and Havana would again meet at the negotiating table. But under what conditions the parties can return to the topic of normalizing relations is still unknown. In this sense, a lot will depend on the team of the elected president, senior officials who will be included in his team. In addition, the changes in regional international relations that have taken place in recent years will also play a role. The situation some six years ago, which prompted the White House to move closer to the Island of Freedom, has partially lost its relevance today. In this regard, the position of the Latin American states, the American-Cuban community in the United States, as well as the current balance of power in the Congress deserve special attention. The article uses a problematic approach, the main task of which was to analyze the main results of Trump’s anti-Cuban policy and to identify opportunities for improving US-Cuban relations during the Biden administration.
唐纳德·特朗普反古巴政策的结果以及约瑟夫·拜登领导下美古关系的前景
唐纳德·特朗普成为美国总统后,美古关系正常化进程中断了四年。在他就职后,正如他在竞选期间所承诺的那样,他取消了他的前任在改善双边关系方面取得的几乎所有成就,随后不断加强对哈瓦那的制裁。这可能是由于特朗普希望为华盛顿特区的极端保守利益集团提供互惠的“服务”,这些集团在选举期间提供了大量支持。与此同时,共和党人通常在决策时不倾向于谨慎,逐渐对与拉丁美洲国家的互动施加了新的限制,并不急于立即使用所有可用的工具。或许,通过这种方式,特朗普试图尽可能长时间地为自己保留主要的“谈判筹码”,自由岛成为他内部政治游戏中的“鹰派”新伙伴的交换条件。因此,白宫在2020年大选前夕和大选后立即采取了最激进的措施。曾在巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府担任副总统的民主党人约瑟夫•拜登(Joseph Biden)的胜利,没有让极端保守派的算计完全成真:古巴顶住了来自美国的压力,华盛顿和哈瓦那有希望再次在谈判桌上会面。但是,在什么条件下,双方可以回到关系正常化的话题上来,仍然是未知的。从这个意义上说,很多事情将取决于当选总统的团队,包括他的团队中的高级官员。此外,近年来发生的区域国际关系变化也将发挥作用。大约六年前的情况曾促使白宫向自由岛靠近,但在今天已部分失去了意义。在这方面,值得特别注意的是拉丁美洲国家、在美国的美国-古巴人社区的立场以及目前国会中的权力平衡。本文采用了一种有问题的方法,其主要任务是分析特朗普反古巴政策的主要结果,并找出在拜登政府期间改善美古关系的机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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