Fuzzy Cognitive Maps of Social-Ecological Complexity: Applying Mental Modeler to the Bonneville Salt Flats

Abstract

Although often limited in terms of extent or accuracy, mental models—i.e., explanations of the surrounding world and how things work within it—provide confidence and frameworks to navigate life's uncertainties. Unfortunately, differing and yet similar mental models held collectively by groups can lead to problematic behavior, misunderstandings, and conflict on large scales. Such challenges are likely familiar to natural resource managers who, in the course of their work, must consider issues that are neither simple nor exclusively ecological or social in nature. Building mental models of various groups’ understanding of a complex natural resource may help managers address the impacts of resource-related behaviors but can be a difficult task when collecting modeling data from large and diverse user groups. Using a sequential, exploratory approach, our study addresses the utility of surrogate mental modeling to explore (a) mental models held by key players from six stakeholder groups associated with Utah's Bonneville Salt Flats (US), and (b) whether these key players were confident that their personal subjective models represented their own group's thinking about Bonneville. We sought to illuminate and compare stakeholder groups’ mental models of subjectively important social and ecological concepts related to Bonneville through the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs; i.e., semi-quantitative representations of mental models) constructed in Mental Modeler. Analysis revealed differences among groups’ FCMs and levels of perceived complexity, as well as areas of agreement regarding the strength, direction, and character of certain social-ecological relationships. Intersections and divergences in stakeholder mental models may provide logical starting points for communal knowledge-building that can perhaps lessen tension among groups attributable to conceptual misunderstandings of resource-specific complexity.