Future of Soft Commodities – During the Time of War (Trade War) (Presentation Slides)

Ali Muhammad Lakdawala
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Abstract

"Future of Soft Commodities - During the time of WAR (TRADE War)” the paper title mentioned cannot have simple and definitive answer.

Reason being the world is too varied , too complex, for that to be possible. However, its not hard to recognise the sharp differences in ability to identify the more prominent and influential actors.

One must understand purpose of the war is to degrade the enemy's will and economic capacity. It may sound surprising but destruction through a market attack can be more effective than taking out enemy's ship, aircraft, deploying chemical weapons, etc when it comes to disabling an opponent.

During 2015-16 “Currency/Financial” war was evident as boundaryless warfare with China devaluating its currency.

Post which there has been major change in global market dynamics, in fact WAR has only got more intensified with change in leadership across world. The new course opted is "TRADE WAR" wherein most countries has started to deploy it's only TRUMP CARD of "TARIFFS" and leading the pack / more prominent actor in forefront is US of A.

Such war can clamp down countries or even global banking system: When Banking stops, Credit stops, and when Credit stops, Trade stops and when Trade stops, ECONOMY CRUMBLES.

Economist John Maynard Keynes stated "When the facts change, I change my mind“

Adhering with Mr. Keynes statement looks like we need not change our battlefield as WAR is ON just that now it is more open & intense with many players joining the bandwagon

Hence,

"Are Commodities getting politicised than staying course with its fundamentals???“

"What challenges & opportunities does it get along???"
软商品的未来-战争时期(贸易战)(幻灯片)
“软商品的未来-在战争时期(贸易战)”的论文标题提到不能有一个简单和明确的答案。作为世界的理性太过多变,太过复杂,这是不可能的。然而,不难认识到,在识别更突出和更有影响力的行为者的能力上存在巨大差异。人们必须明白,战争的目的是削弱敌人的意志和经济能力。这听起来可能令人惊讶,但通过市场攻击进行破坏可能比摧毁敌人的船只、飞机、部署化学武器等更有效。在2015-16年期间,“货币/金融”战争明显是与中国贬值其货币的无边界战争。全球市场动态发生了重大变化,事实上,随着世界各国领导人的更迭,战争只会变得更加激烈。选择的新路线是“贸易战”,大多数国家已经开始部署“关税”这张唯一的王牌,首当其冲的是美国。这样的战争可以压制国家甚至全球银行体系:当银行停止时,信贷停止,当信贷停止时,贸易停止,当贸易停止时,经济崩溃。经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯说过:“当事实改变时,我就会改变我的想法。”坚持凯恩斯先生的说法,看起来我们不需要改变我们的战场,因为战争已经开始,只是现在它更开放了。因此,“大宗商品是否变得政治化了,而不是保持基本面不变?”“有什么挑战?”机会,它相处得好吗?”
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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