Epidemiological analysis primary open-angle glaucoma incidence and prevalence in Russia

Abstract

Background: more than 50% of newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients are in the moderate or advanced stages. It is difficult to assess disease course due to limited official data. On a national scale, prevalence and incidence are measures that hardly provide a complete "landscape" of this issue in Russia. Aim: to determine the prognosis of changes in epidemiological indicators (prevalence and incidence) of POAG in Russia, assess disease duration and calculate presumed age of disease onset. Patients and Methods: we applied a scientific-analytical design implying literary statistical analysis of official epidemiological indicators of glaucoma in Russia and multicenter trials. These data were a basis for prediction (three variants) of glaucoma incidence and prevalence in Russia and the development of a mathematical model to determine the age of disease onset and duration. Results: the age of patients with POAG stage 0 was 54 (49;58) years. This age was calculated based on data from publications in 2000– 2016. These data were initially used to calculate the mean duration of each glaucoma stage. As a result, the "true" age of stage 1 onset was 57 (52;61) years. Meanwhile, the mean age of stage 1 diagnosis was 60 (56;65) years. According to these calculations and considering predicted changes in population size and average life expectancy, a growth in glaucoma incidence and prevalence is expected in low, medium, and high population projections. Conclusions: we demonstrated an expected growth in glaucoma incidence and prevalence in Russia in the coming 15 years. An increase in visual disability and, therefore, rapid loss of working capacity in various age groups due to "late" diagnosis and treatment are also likely. Collection of epidemiological data, further analysis of these findings, and searching for ways to improve diagnosis and course of socially significant diseases (e.g., glaucoma) are among strategic tasks for the healthcare system. Keywords: primary open-angle glaucoma, glaucoma diagnosis, glaucoma epidemiology, prognosis. For citation: Movsisyan A.B., Kuroedov A.V., Arkharov M.A. et al. Epidemiological analysis primary open-angle glaucoma incidence and prevalence in Russia. Russian Journal of Clinical Ophthalmology. 2022;22(1):3–10 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.32364/2311-7729-2022-22-1-3-10.