{"title":"A Hybrid Approach to Identifying Unknown Unknowns of Predictive Models","authors":"C. Vandenhof","doi":"10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"When predictive models are deployed in the real world, the confidence of a given prediction is often used as a signal of how much it should be trusted. It is therefore critical to identify instances for which the model is highly confident yet incorrect, i.e. the unknown unknowns. We describe a hybrid approach to identifying unknown unknowns that combines the previous crowdsourcing and algorithmic strategies, and addresses some of their weaknesses. In particular, we propose learning a set of interpretable decision rules to approximate how the model makes high confidence predictions. We devise a crowdsourcing task in which workers are presented with a rule, and challenged to generate an instance that “contradicts” it. A bandit algorithm is used to select the most promising rules to present to workers. Our method is evaluated by conducting a user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Experimental results on three datasets indicate that our approach discovers unknown unknowns more efficiently than the state-of-the-art.","PeriodicalId":87339,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the ... AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1609/hcomp.v7i1.5274","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Abstract
When predictive models are deployed in the real world, the confidence of a given prediction is often used as a signal of how much it should be trusted. It is therefore critical to identify instances for which the model is highly confident yet incorrect, i.e. the unknown unknowns. We describe a hybrid approach to identifying unknown unknowns that combines the previous crowdsourcing and algorithmic strategies, and addresses some of their weaknesses. In particular, we propose learning a set of interpretable decision rules to approximate how the model makes high confidence predictions. We devise a crowdsourcing task in which workers are presented with a rule, and challenged to generate an instance that “contradicts” it. A bandit algorithm is used to select the most promising rules to present to workers. Our method is evaluated by conducting a user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Experimental results on three datasets indicate that our approach discovers unknown unknowns more efficiently than the state-of-the-art.