China's Global Leadership Through G20 Compliance.

Abstract

What kind of leadership role is China playing in the G20? How has this leadership role evolved over time, particularly with the recent global crises created by the COVID-19 pandemic? In addition, will China's rising role in providing badly needed global public goods reinforce its rivalry with a declining US, present the opportunity of co-leading with its BRICS counterparts, or mediate and foster co-operative solutions among all? This study seeks to address these critical questions using quantitative analysis based on G20 compliance data since its start in 2008, and especially at the recent Osaka Summit in June 2019 and the emergency virtual summit on March 26, 2020. Specifically, this study analyses China's changing compliance levels over time and across issue areas, in comparison with its key G20 partners (or rivals): the US, India and Russia. Observing China's compliance trends alongside those of other major G20 powers provides important insights into the characteristics, evolution and interactions of China's leadership. This analysis finds that China's leadership role has increased over time but that China remains largely a flexible and co-operative leader. From 2008 to 2018, China's compliance rose while that of the US declined. Overall, China leads more with its BRICS partners than with the US. China's leadership model has been characterized by flexibility and cooperativeness, as China has never led alone, and China's closest compliance companions vary across different issue areas. China and other G20 members' compliance in 2020 largely confirms these trends and the causal strength of the shock activated vulnerability of COVID-19 and members' relevant specialized capabilities in response.