Analyzing connectivity reliability and critical units for highway networks in high-intensity seismic region using Bayesian network

Abstract

It is important to evaluate the connectivity reliability of highway networks for the emergency response and rehabilitation of transportation systems in high-intensity seismic regions. Given the complexity and uncertainty of seismic damages of highway networks in high-intensity seismic region, this paper describes a Bayesian network (BN) model for evaluating the network connectivity reliability and identifying critical units. The empirical prediction method is employed to compute the connectivity probability of highway units based on the structural damage of units under earthquakes. A success tree is used to construct the network connectivity graph. Then, the network connectivity graph is converted into the BN model by BN method with the connectivity probability of highway units as prior probability. Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian updating are performed in BN to identify critical units and dynamically assess the connectivity reliability of highway network. The proposed model is applied to a highway network composed of G213 and S9 in the Wenchuan Earthquake. The results show that the BN model integrates the structural damage of units with the functional performance of the highway network in high-intensity seismic region. Bayesian updating allows the posterior probability of segments and origin–destination pairs to be computed, providing an online evaluation of the functional performance of the highway network. The identification of critical units at each stage enables seismic reinforcement priority, thus contributing to the rehabilitation on connectivity reliability of network system.