The End of War: How a Robust Marketplace and Liberal Hegemony Are Leading to Perpetual World Peace

IF 4.8 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

International Security Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI:10.1162/isec_a_00352

M. Mousseau

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引用次数: 18

Abstract

Abstract Permanent world peace is beginning to emerge. States with developed market-oriented economies have foremost interests in the principle of self-determination of all states as the foundation for a robust global marketplace. War among these states, even making preparations for war, is not possible, because they are in a natural alliance to preserve and protect the global order. Among other states, weaker powers, fearing those that are stronger, tend to bandwagon with the relatively benign market-oriented powers. The result is a powerful liberal global hierarchy that is unwittingly, but systematically, buttressing states' embrace of market norms and values, moving the world toward perpetual peace. Analysis of voting preferences of members of the United Nations General Assembly from 1946 to 2010 corroborates the influence of the liberal global hierarchy: states with weak internal markets tend to disagree with the foreign policy preferences of the largest market power (i.e., the United States), but more so if they have stronger rather than weaker military and economic capabilities. Market-oriented states, in contrast, align with the market leader regardless of their capabilities. Barring some dark force that brings about the collapse of the global economy (such as climate change), the world is now in the endgame of a five-century-long trajectory toward permanent peace and prosperity.

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《战争的结束:一个强大的市场和自由主义霸权如何导致世界永久和平》

永久的世界和平正在开始出现。拥有发达市场经济的国家最关心的是所有国家的自决原则，这是一个强大的全球市场的基础。这些国家之间的战争，甚至为战争做准备，都是不可能的，因为它们是在维护和保护全球秩序的天然联盟中。在其他国家中，实力较弱的国家害怕实力较强的国家，倾向于与相对温和的以市场为导向的大国结盟。其结果是一个强大的自由主义全球等级制度，它在不知不觉中(但却是系统地)支持着各国对市场规范和价值观的接受，推动着世界走向永久和平。对1946年至2010年联合国大会成员国投票偏好的分析证实了自由主义全球等级制度的影响:内部市场薄弱的国家往往不同意最大市场力量(即美国)的外交政策偏好，但如果它们的军事和经济能力更强而不是更弱，就更不同意。相反，以市场为导向的国家，无论其能力如何，都与市场领导者结盟。除非出现一些导致全球经济崩溃的黑暗力量(比如气候变化)，否则世界现在正处于长达五个世纪的永久和平与繁荣的最后阶段。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Security Social Sciences-Law

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Security publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics of war and peace, as well as more recent dimensions of security, including environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, transnational networks, and emerging technologies. International Security has defined the debate on US national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security affairs for more than forty years. The journal values scholarship that challenges the conventional wisdom, examines policy, engages theory, illuminates history, and discovers new trends. Readers of IS discover new developments in: The causes and prevention of war U.S.-China relations Great power politics Ethnic conflict and intra-state war Terrorism and insurgency Regional security in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America U.S. foreign and defense policy International relations theory Diplomatic and military history Cybersecurity and defense technology Political economy, business, and security Nuclear proliferation.