N. Vaghefi, M. Shamsudin, Alias Radam, Khalid B Abdul Rahim
{"title":"Impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia: economic and policy adjustments for rice industry","authors":"N. Vaghefi, M. Shamsudin, Alias Radam, Khalid B Abdul Rahim","doi":"10.1080/1943815X.2015.1112292","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Rice paddies production in Malaysia, as in other parts of the world, is extremely vulnerable to weather changes and extreme conditions such as drought and flooding. Such situations forced Malaysia to maintain a protectionist regime with respect to its rice industry to better ensure food security for the country. In this study, a crop simulation model (DSSAT) and system dynamics approach were used to assess the impact of climate change on future rice production, self-sufficiency level of rice, and farmers’ gross income in Malaysia. Results from the DSSAT model show that during the main and off growing seasons, increase in temperature and changes rainfall pattern can be expected to reduce the rice yield by 12 and 31.3%, respectively, until the year 2030. Based on the system dynamics’ results, the reduction in rice yield was expected to reduce farmers’ gross income and the rice self-sufficiency level of the country. The study suggested two different policy scenarios to overcome these adverse effects. The overall policy implication is that the Malaysian rice industry cannot be sustained if government takes no action to change its current policies.","PeriodicalId":16194,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences","volume":"9 1","pages":"19 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2016-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"49","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815X.2015.1112292","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 49
Abstract
Abstract Rice paddies production in Malaysia, as in other parts of the world, is extremely vulnerable to weather changes and extreme conditions such as drought and flooding. Such situations forced Malaysia to maintain a protectionist regime with respect to its rice industry to better ensure food security for the country. In this study, a crop simulation model (DSSAT) and system dynamics approach were used to assess the impact of climate change on future rice production, self-sufficiency level of rice, and farmers’ gross income in Malaysia. Results from the DSSAT model show that during the main and off growing seasons, increase in temperature and changes rainfall pattern can be expected to reduce the rice yield by 12 and 31.3%, respectively, until the year 2030. Based on the system dynamics’ results, the reduction in rice yield was expected to reduce farmers’ gross income and the rice self-sufficiency level of the country. The study suggested two different policy scenarios to overcome these adverse effects. The overall policy implication is that the Malaysian rice industry cannot be sustained if government takes no action to change its current policies.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences (JIES) provides a stimulating, informative and critical forum for intellectual debate on significant environmental issues. It brings together perspectives from a wide range of disciplines and methodologies in both the social and natural sciences in an effort to develop integrative knowledge about the processes responsible for environmental change. The Journal is especially concerned with the relationships between science, society and policy and one of its key aims is to advance understanding of the theory and practice of sustainable development.