Real-time Stochastic Evacuation Models for Decision Support in Actual Emergencies

A. Cuesta, D. Alvear, O. Abreu, Delfín Silió
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引用次数: 16

Abstract

This paper introduces and proposes the use of evacuation models for decision support during actual emergencies. Two examples are presented: EvacTrain 2.0 and EvacTunnel. The proposed models are essentially stochastic, quick and easy to use and can generate and process results of several simulations within a few seconds. The main output parameter is the percentile (0.90, 0.95 or 0.99 th) of total evacuation times. They also provide other statistical characteristics and additional outputs. Both models have been compared with other validated evacuation models. Results suggest that the proposed models provide consistent and reliable results. The general findings described in this paper suggest that it is possible to develop efficient evacuation models for supporting emergency decisions in real-time.
面向突发事件决策支持的实时随机疏散模型
本文介绍并提出了在实际突发事件中使用疏散模型进行决策支持的方法。给出了两个例子:EvacTrain 2.0和EvacTunnel。所提出的模型具有随机、快速和易于使用的特点,可以在几秒钟内生成和处理多次模拟的结果。主要输出参数是总疏散时间的百分位数(0.90、0.95或0.99)。它们还提供其他统计特征和额外产出。这两种模型都与其他经过验证的疏散模型进行了比较。结果表明,所提出的模型提供了一致和可靠的结果。本文所描述的一般研究结果表明,开发有效的疏散模型以支持实时应急决策是可能的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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