Fuzzy evaluation of coordinated development of logistics and trade in coastal areas based on granger causal model

IF 1.5 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS
Lingli Chu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Belt and Road is the logistics and trade of China’s coastal areas, which has gained new development opportunities. To explore the Belt and Road strategy in the current situation of logistics and trade development in coastal areas, the coastal logistics and trade measurement indicators were selected, an evaluation model of the collaborative development of logistics and trade was built by using time-series data and fuzzy theory, and the causal relationship between the indicators was analyzed through the Granger causal model. Results show that from 2009 to 2018, the total logistics value and trade volume of the studied area show an increasing trend year by year, and the trade scale shows an upward trend year by year. The trade dependence of the coastal area reaches about 37.5%, and the key driving force of economic development is trade export. The total logistics value of the coastal area and the trade import, export, and total import and export of the region, there is a high positive correlation among the three indicators, and the correlation coefficient between the import volume and the export value is more than 0.84, reaching the “extra high” evaluation level, and there is a highly significant positive correlation between the two indicators. The logistics and trade in the region have a positive correlation and collaborative development relationship.
基于granger因果模型的沿海地区物流与贸易协调发展模糊评价
“一带一路”是中国沿海地区的物流和贸易,获得了新的发展机遇。为探讨“一带一路”战略下沿海地区物流贸易发展现状,选取沿海地区物流贸易测度指标,运用时间序列数据和模糊理论构建物流贸易协同发展评价模型,并通过格兰杰因果模型分析指标间的因果关系。结果表明:2009 - 2018年,研究区物流总值和贸易总量呈逐年增长趋势,贸易规模呈逐年上升趋势;沿海地区的贸易依存度达到37.5%左右,贸易出口是经济发展的主要动力。沿海地区物流总值与区域贸易进出口和进出口总额,三个指标之间存在高度正相关关系,进口量与出口额的相关系数大于0.84,达到“超高”评价水平,两个指标之间存在高度显著的正相关关系。区域内的物流与贸易具有正相关、协同发展的关系。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
23.10%
发文量
31
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems (pISSN 1598-2645, eISSN 2093-744X) is published quarterly by the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems. The official title of the journal is International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems and the abbreviated title is Int. J. Fuzzy Log. Intell. Syst. Some, or all, of the articles in the journal are indexed in SCOPUS, Korea Citation Index (KCI), DOI/CrossrRef, DBLP, and Google Scholar. The journal was launched in 2001 and dedicated to the dissemination of well-defined theoretical and empirical studies results that have a potential impact on the realization of intelligent systems based on fuzzy logic and intelligent systems theory. Specific topics include, but are not limited to: a) computational intelligence techniques including fuzzy logic systems, neural networks and evolutionary computation; b) intelligent control, instrumentation and robotics; c) adaptive signal and multimedia processing; d) intelligent information processing including pattern recognition and information processing; e) machine learning and smart systems including data mining and intelligent service practices; f) fuzzy theory and its applications.
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