Assessment of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar

IF 0.5 Q3 AREA STUDIES
M. M. Islam, M. Tareque, M. Moniruzzaman, M. I. Ali
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar, have been witnessing impressive economic growth rates due to their trade performance in the international market. Although export-led growth assumption is functional in these economies, existing pieces of literature hardly considered them in their studies. Against this backdrop, the present study investigates the export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian countries — Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar — covering country-specific different time ranges. This research employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration and the MWALD Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between variables. The results obtained from the autoregressive distributed lag method confirm the co-integration among the variables. In addition, the Granger causality test explores both the export-led and growth-led export hypotheses in Bangladesh and India as per the bidirectional causation between exports and economic development. Only the export-led growth theorem is relevant to China, and the growth-led export hypothesis is valid in the case of Myanmar based on the unidirectional causation between these variables. Therefore, any joint footstep of BCIM countries is critical to promoting exports by penetrating new destinations with diversified export goods and services. The obtained findings also indicate the potential for utilising these countries’ unused resources to encourage exports to uplift the existing growth trajectory.
出口导向型增长假说的评估:以孟加拉国、中国、印度和缅甸为例
亚洲国家,特别是孟加拉国、中国、印度和缅甸,由于在国际市场上的贸易表现,经济增长率令人印象深刻。尽管出口导向型增长假设在这些经济体中发挥了作用,但现有文献在研究中几乎没有考虑到这一假设。在此背景下,本研究调查了四个南亚国家(孟加拉国、中国、印度和缅甸)的出口导向型增长假设,涵盖了具体国家的不同时间范围。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界检验方法进行协整,采用MWALD格兰杰因果检验确定变量之间的因果关系。自回归分布滞后法的结果证实了变量之间的协整性。此外,根据出口与经济发展之间的双向因果关系,格兰杰因果检验分别对孟加拉国和印度的出口导向型和增长导向型出口假设进行了探讨。只有出口导向增长定理与中国相关,基于这些变量之间的单向因果关系,增长导向出口假说在缅甸的情况下是有效的。因此,孟中印缅各国的任何联合行动,都对以多样化的出口商品和服务进入新的目的地,从而促进出口至关重要。所获得的研究结果还表明,利用这些国家未使用的资源来鼓励出口以提升现有增长轨迹的潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
20.00%
发文量
23
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