House price dynamics in Iberian Metropolitan Statistical Areas: slope heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and elasticities

Abstract

PurposeThis paper studies the dynamics and elasticities of house prices in Spain and Portugal (Iberia) at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level, addressing panel regression problems such as heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence between MSA.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a two steps study. First, five distinct estimation methodologies are applied to estimate the long-term house price equilibrium of the Iberian MSA house market: Mean Group (MG), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) MG (FMOLS-MG), FMOLS Augmented MG (FMOLS-AMG), Common Correlated Effects MG (CCEMG) and Dynamic CCEMG (DCCEMG). FMOLS-AMG is found to be the best estimator for the long-term model. Second, an additional five distinct estimation methodologies are applied to estimate the short-term house price dynamics using the long-term FMOLS-AMG estimated price in the error-correction term of the short-term dynamic house price model: OLS Fixed Effects (FE), OLS Random Effects (RE), MG, CCEMG and DCCEMG. DCCEMG is found to be the best estimator for the short-term model.FindingsThe results show that in the long run Iberian house prices are inelastic to aggregate income (0.227). This is a much lower elasticity than what was previously found in US MSA house price studies, suggesting that there are other factors explaining Iberian house prices. According to our study, coastal MSA presents an inelastic housing supply and a price to income elasticity close to one, whereas inland MSA are shown to have an elastic supply and a non-significant price to income elasticity. Spatial differences are important and cross-section dependence is prevalent, affecting estimates in conventional methodologies that do not account for these limitations, such as OLS-FE and OLS-RE. Momentum and mean reversion are the main determinants of short-term dynamics.Practical implicationsRecent econometric advances that account for slope heterogeneity and cross-section dependence produce more accurate estimates than conventional panel estimation methodologies. The results suggest that house markets should be analyzed at the metropolitan level, not at the national level and that there are significant differences between short-term and long-term house price determinants.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study applying recent econometric advances to the Iberian MSA house market.