Does Export Upgrading Really Matter to Economic Growth? Evidence From Panel Data for High-, Middle-, and Low-Income Countries

Mohamed Chakroun, Naima Chrid, Sami Saafi
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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between export upgrading and economic growth for 67 countries over the period of 1984–2013. For this purpose, a panel cointegration framework that allows to control for parameters heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and non-stationarity has been deployed. Empirical results yield evidence of a positive and significant effect of export upgrading on economic growth for the full-sample and high-income panels, while this effect is negative and significant for low-income countries and insignificant for middle-income countries. Particularly, our findings show evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship for the global and high-income panels. However, for low-income countries relationship between export complexity and economic growth was found to be U-shaped. These results are robust to several robustness checks and have important policy implications. In developed countries, excessive export complexity may be job-destructive and thereby threatens long-run growth and prosperity. For non-developed countries, exports diversification should be prioritized during the first stages of development. Industrial upgrading should not be considered as a strategic economic policy before the economy reaches a minimum level of maturity.
出口升级对经济增长真的重要吗?来自高、中、低收入国家面板数据的证据
本研究的主要目的是考察1984-2013年67个国家出口升级与经济增长之间的长期关系。为此目的,一个面板协整框架,允许控制参数异质性,横截面依赖性和非平稳性已经部署。实证结果表明,出口升级对全样本和高收入面板的经济增长具有显著的正向影响,而对低收入国家的出口升级对经济增长具有显著的负向影响,对中等收入国家的出口升级对经济增长的影响不显著。特别是,我们的研究结果显示,全球和高收入面板之间存在倒u型关系。然而,对于低收入国家,出口复杂性与经济增长之间的关系被发现是u型的。这些结果对几个稳健性检查具有稳健性,并具有重要的政策含义。在发达国家,过度复杂的出口可能会破坏就业,从而威胁到长期增长和繁荣。对非发达国家来说,出口多样化应在发展的最初阶段优先考虑。在经济达到最低成熟水平之前,不应将产业升级视为一项战略性经济政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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