The Impact of E‐Car Deployment on Global Crude Oil Demand

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of growing e‐car deployment on global crude oil demand, by determining the impact factors of total vehicles‐in‐use. It further sets out the impact on global fuel consumption and global crude oil demand. Both effects are compared with a benchmark scenario excluding e‐car deployment. A 25‐year simulation of the three different demand functions is performed and finds significant impact on fuel demand, but less significant impact on crude oil demand, since gasoline is just a partial fraction of crude oil and most of global crude oil demand depends on global economic development. The conclusion of this paper is that we find fuel demand to peak earliest in 2021, followed by a subsequent decline to today's levels, assuming that e‐car market share development follows a Rayleigh distribution. Based on a car manufacturer survey by KPMG, which indicates a 10 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years, the e‐car sales function is adapted to this estimation. At the same time, global crude oil demand is found to peak in 2025 in case of 10 per cent e‐car market share, in 2026 in the case of 8 per cent e‐car market share and in 2030 in case of a 6 per cent e‐car market share in 10 years. Until 2040, the increase in crude oil demand is found to be 25 per cent slower in the 10 per cent market share case, 20 per cent slower in the 8 per cent market share case and 15 per cent slower in the 6 per cent market share case than compared with global crude oil demand without any e‐cars deployed.