Analysis of Ignitions Following 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Using Kawasumi Model

K. Himoto, M. Yamada, Tomoaki Nishino
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引用次数: 13

Abstract

Ignitions following the Tohoku earthquake (2011) can be divided either into earthquake-generated ignitions or tsunami-generated ignitions. This study analyzed the behavior of the earthquake-generated ignitions. Ignition records of 698 municipalities of eastern Japan was collected by a questionnaire survey and found that 191 ignitions were either directly or indirectly caused by seismic motion. These records of earthquakegenerated ignition were analyzed using the statistical model proposed by Kawasumi (Kawasumi model). Kawasumi model is a simple one-parameter model which formulates the relationship between the ignition probability p and the scale of seismic intensity θ. Seismic indices θ used in this analysis were (a) collapse ratio of houses, (b) JMA (Japan Meteorological Association) seismic intensity, (c) PGA (peak ground acceleration), (d) PGV (peak ground velocity), (e) PGD (peak ground displacement), (f) acceleration response and (g) SI (Spectral Intensity). Obtained adjusted determination coefficients were higher than 0.7 for most of the seismic indices θ except for (a) collapse ratio of houses and (e) PGD. After normalization with regard to time and season of its occurrence, the results were further compared with that of various earthquakes (1927-1968), and the Kobe earthquake (1995). Ignition probability p of the Tohoku earthquake (2011) was substantially lower than that of the various earthquakes (1927-1968). On the other hand, the difference of ignition probability p between the Tohoku earthquake (2011) and Kobe earthquake (1995) was relatively small.
用Kawasumi模型分析2011年东北地震火源
东北地震(2011)后的点火可以分为地震引起的点火和海啸引起的点火。本研究分析了地震点火的行为。通过问卷调查收集了日本东部698个自治市的点火记录,发现地震运动直接或间接引起的点火有191起。用Kawasumi提出的统计模型(Kawasumi模型)对这些地震引燃记录进行了分析。Kawasumi模型是一个简单的单参数模型,它描述了引燃概率p与地震烈度尺度θ之间的关系。本分析使用的地震指标θ为(a)房屋倒塌比,(b) JMA(日本气象协会)地震烈度,(c) PGA(峰值地面加速度),(d) PGV(峰值地面速度),(e) PGD(峰值地面位移),(f)加速度响应,(g) SI(光谱强度)。除(a)房屋倒塌比和(e) PGD外,大部分地震指标θ的调整后判定系数均大于0.7。在对其发生的时间和季节进行标准化后,进一步将结果与各种地震(1927-1968)和神户地震(1995)进行比较。2011年东北地震的点火概率p明显低于1927-1968年的各种地震。另一方面,东北地震(2011年)与神户地震(1995年)的点火概率p差异较小。
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