Strategic management, scenario analysis and competitive advantage analysis: New opportunities for anti-money laundering system reform

Abstract

The article identifies and mathematically substantiates vectors of reforming the financial monitoring system based on the synergistic approach in the cross-country context by developing scenarios by selecting internal and external factors that stimulate money laundering. The key external and internal factors of the money laundering process intensification are indicated. Competitive advantages of the anti-money laundering processes, the achievement of which is possible in terms of key external and internal factors for activation of money laundering process are formed. The relationship between the key internal and external factors of money laundering intensification and competitive advantages by building a binary characteristic matrix is formed. The synergy effect made by the mutual influence of simultaneously acting internal and external factors – a quantitative feature of the further strategy of the financial monitoring system reforming in terms of cross-country analysis is calculated. An economic-mathematical model for evaluating and interpreting strategy for improving the financial monitoring system in terms of cross-country context based on integer optimization is developed. In the article, there is calculation of the number of competitive advantages received by each observed country, without considering the possible synergy effect of mutual influence of simultaneously acting internal and external factors on each other. Moreover, there is quantitative assessment of the synergy effect made by the emergence of additional competitive advantages due to a certain combination of simultaneous influence made by external and internal factors of the money laundering intensification. The “ideal” situation of the possibility of gaining all possible competitive advantages in reforming the financial monitoring system in terms of cross-country context by overcoming internal and external factors stimulating the money laundering is studied. The results of the cross-country analysis form a basis for the further formalization of the limits for quantitative evaluation of the developed strategies through a uniform distribution.