Watershed Response to Bias-Corrected Improved Skilled Precipitation and Temperature under Future Climate - A Case Study on Spencer Creek Watershed, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that the statistical properties of precipitation and temperature will change under the future climate condition, and this will cause a significant impact on water resources and its management at watershed scale. This study investigated the hydrological response to climate change for Spencer Creek watershed located in Southern Ontario, Canada. The precipitation and temperature projection used in this study were obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate simulations. NARCCAP climate projections were bias- corrected for meteorological stations representative of the watershed. The biascorrected NARCCAP climate projections were used as input in a calibrated hydrological model Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalans-avdelning (HBV) to simulate flows at the outlet of the watershed. The improvement of bias-corrected NARCCAP precipitation and temperature is revealed by Brier and Rank Probability Skill Score (BSS and RPSS, respectively). The comparison of current and future simulated flow results reveals an increase in winter daily average flows and decrease in other seasons, and approximately 13% increase in annual evapotranspiration under future climate condition. An increase in high flows and decrease in low flows under future climate is revealed by flowduration analysis.