Políticas Fiscais para Estabilização da Dívida Pública: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral aplicada ao Brasil

Abstract

We used a deterministic dynamic applied general equilibrium model with a representative agentto evaluate fiscal policy alternatives for Brazil. The changes in the fiscal mix that mostly increasethe long-run per-capita output (by about 2%) are: the reduction of government consumptionaccompanied by the decrease of the capital income tax rate, and the increase of governmentinvestment financed by the reduction of transfers. The former is also the one the producesthe largest increase in welfare. The public debt consolidation strategies considered used onlyone fiscal instrument and aimed to reduce public debt by 10% in 10 years and its subsequentstabilization. From the point of view of the level of consumption and of the level of capitalstock in the long run, and of the discounted flow of welfare, the best instrument was the taxrate on capital income. From the point of view of output in the long-run, the best instrumentwas government investment, followed by the tax rate on capital income.