Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The global order was facing multiple challenges even before the pandemic, so it is very likely – based on the evolutions recorded since the beginning of 2020 – that these challenges will further amplify. On the impact of COVID-19 on the world order, opinions of political scientists vary greatly, from reserved optimism to worst-case scenario, from treating it as a simple inflexion point to forecasting the transformative changes it will entail. In this article we argue that this current pandemic will only accelerate previous trends by deepening international power competition, thus accelerating the transition towards a more realist world order. This working hypothesis disregards potential non-linear events that might occur from this point on and that could impact all forecasts. In this article we discuss the structure of the current international system and we analyze recent developments, thus trying to determine which specific trends will be accelerated. Furthermore, we examine the „lessons” learned so far and try to determine what can be done to limit the consequences of the pandemic, at least at the national level.