System Design Priority Order Considering Uncertainty in Early Stages

Abstract

Herein, we have confirmed the importance of formulating product proposals and product-development processes equipped to cope effectively with uncertainty in the early design stage. The objective of this study was to derive the target performance and design priority order taking into account uncertainties in system design. Following the concept of set-based design, the approach adopted was to secure a set of solutions as design space that satisfy the target variables demands, dividing the design space into several clusters and evaluating each of the clusters, then gradually narrowing the cluster as the design progresses, and finally extracting the solution space that is desirable. Priority order of design was developed based on the strategy of increasing the degree of freedom of the subsequent process. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified using the model of a plug-in hybrid vehicle. From the results, we confirmed the existence of a trade-off between design and target variables preference and development risk, that it is possible to determine the extent to which the solution space can be narrowed, that the shape of the solution space determines the design priorities, and we were able to derive a desirable design priority order according to the target performance.