Foresight as a strategic technological forecasting tool in digital transformation

Abstract

Aim. To identify the most effective foresight methods for technological forecasting of digital transformation and development of Russian corporations.Tasks. Analysis of methodological foundations of foresight, its essence, goal setting, and specifics of its practical application; identification of factors for foreign consulting companies to apply foresight methods; review of Russian practice of corporate foresight application by RZD, Gazprom and Rosatom; identification and demonstration of the most effective foresight methods for domestic companies.Methods. The authors used general logical and special research methods, system and structuralfunctional approaches. The study is based on scientific papers published in Russian and foreign periodicals, publications in leading Russian periodicals, normative-legal documents, as well as data from the Bank of Russia, international consulting companies, etc.Results. The article is devoted to the prospects and possibilities of using foresight methods for forecasting and strategic planning in Russian companies. The most effective foresight methods that can be used to develop strategies for the digital transformation of domestic companies were identified.Conclusions. The complexity of technological forecasting is also due to the high degree of uncertainty in the digital economy environment, which is confirmed by the authors’ research in the context of analyzing the data of numerous forecasts of analytical and consulting companies. Significant differences in the methodology of calculating the indicator can be seen in the example of estimates of the size of the global Internet of Things market, which shows a significant scattering of analysts’ opinions, from $300.3 billion to $1,186.2 billion in 2021 (from $75.28 billion to $740.47 billion in 2020). Corporate foresight serves as a strategic technology foresight tool in a highly uncertain digital environment, unreliable forecasts of Industry 4.0 technology market development and other socio-economic processes, which are of primary importance in developing strategies for digital transformation.