Can the war in Ukraine thwart the green agricultural transformation in the EU? Political economy considerations regarding the case of Germany

Abstract

Abstract The war in Ukraine threatens global food security. At the same time, the European Union (EU) plans to advance the green transformation of its agro-food sector, which implies lower agricultural output. Relying on the political economy literature, this study examines if the war can thwart the greening ambitions for EU’s agro-food sector. For this, it explores to what extent the war represents an external event that is large enough to change policy preferences and reviews the positions of major political actors who shape agricultural policy on the EU level and in member states regarding the case of Germany, where the ambition for the green transformation of the economy is particularly strong. It is shown that, for the time being, the war does not impede EU’s greening aspirations. Instead, the major political actors play for time, hoping to forward the green transformation after the end of the war.