Critical Market Tipping Points for High-Grade White Oak Inventory Decline in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Abstract

This study expands the spatial scope of the Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to include states in the central hardwood region and examine critical market tipping points of high-grade (large diameter) white oak under a set of illustrative scheduled demand scenarios. In light of the growing concern for future white oak timber supply, we illustrate the sensitivity of future inventory tipping points to market structure and price responsiveness. Particularly, we examined the importance of market demand parameters, including growth rates for product demand and supply/demand elasticities, in influencing future inventory trajectories in different subregions over the projection horizon. Results of this study indicate that more elastic demand and more inelastic supply response concomitantly defers the time before inventory culminates. This modeling framework shows promise in examining key ecological, climatic, and economic interrelationships that will drive future resource changes. Study Implications: This study examines critical market tipping points of high-grade white oak growing stock in the central hardwood region under alternative demand growth scenarios. The main finding of this article is that high-quality white oak inventory tipping points depend critically on the annual rate of increase in quantity demanded and on the sensitivity of supply and demand to changes in white oak log prices. This study helps better inform white oak–dependent stakeholders on sustainability assessment and highlights how policy design that incorporates both management and market interventions could help maintain the white oak resource base.