HETEROGENEOUS DEPENDENCE OF OIL-FOOD PRICE DYNAMICS IN AFRICA'S NET OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES

Abstract

The determinants of food prices have attracted sizeable debates among scholars over the last three decades. However, many of these studies ignore the possibility that the impact of oil prices on food prices could vary across the food price distribution. The paper employs a quantile regression technique to ascertain whether food prices respond to the potential heterogeneous impact of crude oil price changes in the six selected African net oil-exporting countries. The coefficient of negative oil price shocks in the panel OLS model is insignificant and positive at the 5% significance level. In contrast, the coefficient of positive oil price shocks significantly affects food prices for the chosen African countries. The quantile regression analysis's empirical findings highlight the diverse dependence effects of various ranges on food prices. All coefficients are non-significant across all quantiles for negative oil price shocks, a conclusion consistent with panel least squares estimate results. Besides, the findings prove that positive changes in oil prices significantly affect the magnitude of food prices in selected African countries. The article concludes that the influence of crude oil price variations on food prices is diverse and positive across quantiles for a subset of Africa's net oil-exporting countries. The findings of this study could have a crucial policy and economic implications for economic agents and stakeholders in diverse fiscal environments. As a result, economic agents must make timely decisions to respond to the effects of oil price uncertainty on Africa's food market.