Modelling the Structure of Long-Term Electricity Forward Prices at Nord Pool

Abstract

This chapter models long-term electricity forward prices with variables that influence the price of electricity. Long-term modelling requires consideration of expected changes in the demand and supply structure. The model combines high-resolution information on fuel costs from financial markets and low-resolution information on the demand/supply structure of the electricity market. We model the latter using consumption and supply capacity and the former with forward prices of fuels, emission allowances and imported electricity. The model is estimated using data from the Nordic electricity market and global long-term forward prices of energy. Owing to a lack of data on consumption and supply capacity, the estimated results provide only the broad influence of these variables on forward prices. Though extrapolation of the prices observed in Nord Pool may suffer from the influence of short-term variables, such as precipitation and temperature, the model yields robust forecasts of the prices of contracts that are not exchange traded.